Quantifying the impossibly possible

So how do I go about quantifying the unquantifiable?  Do I make guesses?  Speculate?  WAG (Wild ass guess)?  Or do I take what I know I have done and give a little fudge factor to it so the result is something within the realm of possibility?  Or is it a combination of all of the above? 

The answer is seemingly more simple than all those questions combined...but those are the games that your mind plays with you during the taper period of an Ironman.  Your confidence is as fragile as nytro-glycerin and can explode with the slightest bump and you become neurotic about everything and anything...someone coughs and you run away, you take the elevator one flight up to save energy, and you obsess about everything you are eating, and occasionally take a breakdown day where you eat whatever you want...which includes a bag of Tear and Share peanut M&M's that you don't share...and a big slice of brownie that night as well...oh well...what are you going to do?  Oh right...taper!!

So the road to this point of our Ironman journey has been relatively smooth.  We started this long and lonely road (especially lonely given this time of year for training and weather here in DC) last December when we spent Christmas at my parents house in Tucson, AZ and decided to ride our bikes as much as possible in the challenging terrain and winds of the area.  We rode up and down  Gate's Pass and even tackled Mt. Lemmon riding our hearts out and having a great time in the process.  We tackled the Tour of California and rode over 350 miles in 6 days and climbed Mt. Hamilton from Modesto.  We started doing century rides in April, kept swimming through the winter and started going to Masters swim practices at Catholic University, and swam as much as we could at the Hains Point 50 meter pool from May until it closed for the winter in August.  Bottom line is we started early but tried to keep it as fun as possible by changing it up and doing some fun organized centuries and working out because we wanted to versus "having" to.  If we didn't feel like working out, we didn't.  It was during this time that I decided to change my eating habits from the past 10 years as well (thanks to Kirsten) and truly slim down and get fitter than I had been in years past.  

It was a rough road and of course there were some hiccups along the way (in May/June all my training gear broke at once...better then than now!) but we could tell all the hard work and fun were paying off by how fast Kirsten and I had gotten and how we melted away from training with the normal group of folks and started training with the faster folks (but not the REALLY fast folks).  All in all things came together over the past couple of months even with Kirsten's trip to Sudan throwing a hiccup in her training, she came back stronger, fitter, and more dedicated.  I felt I had made some great strides in endurance, strength, and mental visualization that I hadn't been able to touch before, which brings us to today and what this post is all about...goals for IMAZ.

The Swim

The swim is something I had been working on over the past couple of years and finally this year I started to actually enjoy swimming and wanted to go to the pool.  So after all the hard work over the summer at Hains Point and based on how I was feeling in the pool and my times during each workout I felt like I had made significant strides in my swimming.  This was backed up by a drop in overall age group placing at The Nation's Triathlon where I was in the top 25% of swim times versus the bottom 60-70% for the previous two years.  Considering I did a 1:24 at IMFL two years ago my goal for IMAZ is to do a 1:15.  Not out of the realm of possibility and still conservative since that is a 1:46/100 yd time or a 1:56/100m time.  In training my easy 100's were usually around 1:35 or so.

The Bike

The bike is where we spent a lot of time this year and although I LOVE my road bike, it was towards the end of the season I started seeing a lot of improvement on my tri bike and even tackled at hilly century ride (103 miles) with a 21mph average in 4 hours and 50 minutes.  Although I was ruined when I was done, it was at the end of a hard training block and gave me a real confidence boost.  Added to that were the multiple rides out to Poolesville and Seneca that I would routinely knock out 30-40 minutes faster than anytime previous and wasn't ruined by the end.  My discipline on the bike came around in the last month as well.  

The last couple of century rides we did the second half of the ride would be stronger than the first showing that I was taking the first part of the ride easy then picking it up the latter half.  This is essential for an Ironman and I was glad to see that my efforts were all starting to fall into place.  Given that IMAZ is pretty much flat (a slight uphill on the way out) and we did a training ride out on the Eagleman course (see post HERE) in the howling wind that was the toughest ride we did all year to which I limped to a 112 mile distance in 5 hours and 33 minutes it proved that if I was hurting that bad most of the 1st lap and limping the 2nd lap and was able to pull out a 5:33, then doing 5:30 at IMAZ is entirely possible if the weather cooperates.  So that is the bike goal, 5 hours and 30 minutes for a 20.36 mph average.  

The Run

Ah the run...the biggest unknown in an age groupers Ironman day...the year started out somewhat tumultuous for the run since I got a weird injury around October of last year that prevented me from running until mid January and then I could only run for 30 minutes a couple of times a week.  I came back faster than I thought I would and just went through the motions knocking out the runs.  When the mileage started ramping up I actually felt pretty good and was satisfied with my progress away from the injury.  The first couple of long runs were pretty rough as Kirsten and I tried to get our heads wrapped around what it takes to mentally complete these abominations of training that leave you withered and ready to end your Ironman aspirations...but somehow...you get through them.  

With each long run she and I learned more and more about where we were at in training and what we needed to do come race day.  Having not tested myself or run a road race all year long all I have to go on is my training data for my long runs.  For all the 2+ hour runs we did and for the three 2.5 hour long runs we did my average pace was solidly between 7:30-7:40 minute miles.  Only two runs stick out that took longer than that, one where I was feeling pretty horrible and averaged 8:30's which was back in the heat of August and my last long run in Charleston, WV with a 15+mph head wind and dehydration for lack of water fountains where I averaged 8 minute miles.  It was this run that solidified my goal pace of 8:00 minute miles for the run at IMAZ.  I was dying on that run and was still able to average 8 minute miles which made me feel good just like the bike at Eagleman referenced above.  

So my run goal is 8:00 minute miles or a 3:30 marathon which is actually smoking for an Ironman but some of my late season bricks resulted in some high tempo 10k bricks after 100 mile rides that gave me a confidence boost.  Considering bathroom breaks are possible I think a 8-8:15 minute mile is realistic and possible which gives me a 3:30-3:40 marathon.

Total Goal

So my total goal for IMAZ is to get within 10 hours and 30 minutes including transition times (about 15 minutes which is generous given my times from IMFL).  If things go okay a 10:45 would be great but if things go south...breaking 11 would be stupendous!

All this is predicated on EVERYTHING going perfectly on race day with my nutrition, hydration, and mental fortitude.  Only when the day unfolds throughout each leg will I know if my goals will become a reality.  But until then I am visualizing the positive moments, the negative and painful times and how I will overcome them and push through to my goal, and finally crossing that finish line with my goal time above my head...bring it on...I am ready!